Abstract:
We investigate the patterns and determinants of subsistence acreage diversity in Botswana
for the period 1978/79-2013/14, focusing on the role of input subsidies. Results suggest
that acreage diversity declined during 1978/79 - 1987/88, due to increasing concentration
on the dominant crop of sorghum. However, acreage diversity rose during 1987/88
- 2006/07, owing to falling concentration on sorghum production. Acreage diversity
then fell again during 2006/07 - 2013/14 because of increasing concentration on maize,
which had by then become a dominant crop. We found increased rainfall in the current
year to yield a decline in acreage diversity in the current year, as farmers increased maize
(a riskier crop climate-wise) acreage share, and reduced beans/pulses (a less risky crop)
acreage shares. However, increased rainfall in the current year causes risk-averse farmers
to reduce sorghum (a drought tolerant crop) acreage share and to increase maize, beans/
pulses and groundnuts acreage shares in a subsequent year. Trend variable coefficients
reveal increased acreage diversity over time, which may have been induced by extension
messages and programs meant to promote crop diversity away from traditional staple
cereals into non-cereal crops. The ISPAAD input subsidy program has yielded reduced
acreage diversity, due to its negative impact on maize and beans/pulses acreage shares.
Such unintended effects imply that ISPAAD has conflicted with the national objective
of promoting agricultural diversification.
